The global fuel crisis triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran is entering another phase. The United States Navy has blockaded Iranian ports. Oil has crossed $100 a barrel on further negative news from the region. Europe’s summer flight schedule is under serious threat.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps closed the Strait of Hormuz in late February. Around 150 vessels are anchored and waiting. Daily shipping traffic through the strait fell from approximately 150 ships to fewer than 20.
The Strait of Hormuz is a 34-kilometre passage between Iran and Oman through which around 20% of the world’s seaborne oil and 22% of global liquefied natural gas normally flows.
Race boats run on the same pump fuel available at any garage forecourt. If that fuel is rationed, motorsport does not feature on the allocation list. This crisis is not abstract for powerboat racing. It is direct.
The International Energy Agency has called the closure of the Strait of Hormuz “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” The IEA’s executive director went further, describing it as “the greatest global energy security challenge in history.”
of global seaborne oil normally through Hormuz
Brent crude per barrel, up from $70 pre-war
rise in jet fuel prices since February 28
drop in global oil supply in March alone
Oil Prices and the Economic Outlook
Global oil supply fell by 10.1 million barrels per day in March, according to the IEA’s April 2026 report. The agency now projects global oil demand will decline by 80,000 barrels per day on average across 2026, against previous growth expectations of 730,000 barrels per day. Brent crude stood at approximately $70 a barrel before the war. It crossed $100 on Monday as the US blockade took effect. The Dallas Federal Reserve has estimated that three-quarters of sustained disruption could reduce fourth-quarter global GDP growth by 1.3 percentage points.
Flights at Risk
Jet fuel prices have risen 95% since the conflict began, reaching $195 per barrel by late March, almost double pre-war levels. By early April, 7,049 of 104,618 global scheduled flights were cancelled on a single Monday, nearly 7% of all daily routes worldwide. The IEA has warned that April losses will be twice as severe as March, with Europe facing shortages after Asia absorbed the first shock.
Airlines are responding on three fronts: cutting routes, raising fares, and imposing fuel surcharges.
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby told employees the airline would “tactically prune” approximately 5% of planned routes in the second and third quarters of 2026. Jet fuel costs have more than doubled in three weeks, he said, putting the airline’s additional fuel bill at $11 billion annually, more than double its best-ever profit year. United is preparing internally for oil to remain above $100 a barrel through 2027.
Delta Air Lines has logged a $400 million charge from rising fuel costs. Vietnam Airlines cancelled 20% of flights and suspended seven domestic routes. Scandinavian Airlines cancelled 1,000 Nordic short-haul flights. Air New Zealand is cutting more than 1,100 flights from May. AirAsia reduced capacity by 10%.
Fares are rising across the board. Air France-KLM announced round-trip tickets will increase by €50. South Korean carriers saw fuel surcharges from Incheon jump as much as threefold in April, adding over $700 to round-trip fares to the Americas and Europe. Thai Airways is projecting fare increases of 10% to 15%. Cathay Pacific raised surcharges by 34%. US domestic fares averaged $465 in early April, against no comparable period in recent years.
Airports Council International Europe warned on April 10 that without a significant reopening of the strait within approximately three weeks, a systemic jet fuel shortage across the EU is likely, with direct consequences for airlines and millions of summer passengers.
Fuel rationing is already in effect at seven Italian airports. Air BP Italia has issued emergency notices capping fuel at as low as 2,000 litres per aircraft for non-priority short-haul flights at Bologna, Milan, Treviso, Venice, Brindisi, Pescara, and Reggio Calabria. Priority is being given to medical flights, state aircraft, and long-haul services of three hours or more.
Europe’s estimated commercial jet fuel reserves vary significantly by country. Based on Argus Media analysis of Eurostat data, the UK holds approximately three months of supply, Portugal four, Hungary five, Denmark six, Italy and Germany seven, and France and Ireland eight. These are not official government projections and do not account for demand shifts or logistical bottlenecks.
UK estimated jet fuel reserves
flights cancelled on a single day in early April
jet fuel price by late March 2026
Ryanair predicted summer cancellations if strait stays closed
Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary identified the UK as the most exposed country in Europe, citing Kuwaiti companies’ dominant share of UK aviation fuel supply. Guernsey’s Aurigny airline has already cancelled some flights from mid-April through to early June. Ryanair’s own guaranteed fuel supply runs only until the middle to end of May. UK regional carrier Skybus pulled all its Cornwall Newquay-London Gatwick flights in early April. Some carriers are now “tankering” — loading extra fuel at well-supplied airports to avoid shortages at destinations — at increased weight and cost.
What Is Happening Around the World
Ireland experienced the sharpest domestic impact in Europe over the Easter weekend. More than a third of petrol stations ran dry after farmers and truckers blockaded the country’s only oil refinery and several fuel depots. Prime Minister Micheál Martin announced a €505 million fuel tax cut package on Sunday, on top of a €250 million measure introduced three weeks earlier. An RTÉ analysis on Monday warned the crisis had merely “taken a breather,” with oil prices rising again following the collapse of the Islamabad talks.
Australia, holding approximately 29 to 36 days of fuel reserves, launched a National Fuel Security Plan on March 30. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese urged citizens to take public transport and not over-fill at the pump over Easter. Victoria and Tasmania made public transport free for extended periods.
South Korea urged citizens to take shorter showers, limit phone charging, and reduce driving. The Philippines declared a national energy emergency in late March. Bangladesh ordered markets and shopping centres to close by 6pm. Egypt imposed a 9pm curfew on commercial premises and dimmed street lighting, with its monthly energy bill rising from $560 million before the war to $1.65 billion. Thailand reversed its fuel price caps under fiscal pressure and saw prices jump 22% in a day. Sri Lanka introduced a four-day working week for state institutions and schools. Myanmar and Pakistan, both heavily reliant on imported jet fuel, are among the most constrained aviation markets in the world.
China ordered major refiners including Sinopec to stop accepting new fuel export contracts in early March. Japan has released 80 million barrels from its strategic reserves, covering 15 days of domestic demand.
Alternative Routes
Exports through alternative routes, primarily the west coast of Saudi Arabia, Fujairah on the UAE’s east coast, and the Iraq-to-Ceyhan pipeline through Turkey, have increased to 7.2 million barrels per day from less than 4 million barrels per day before the war. Bypass pipelines available to Saudi Arabia and the UAE can handle an estimated 3.5 to 5.5 million barrels per day at most. The strait’s normal throughput is around 20 million barrels per day.
The Powerboat Racing Dimension
Powerboat racing is highly exposed to the fuel crisis.
The logistical picture is equally direct. F1H2O boats were shipped from the season finale at Sharjah, UAE last December to their owners’ home countries. They now need to reach Cagliari, Sardinia, for the opening round of the 2026 UIM F1H2O World Championship. UIM F2 boats travel the European calendar by road and ferry, and many team members and race officials travel by plane.
XCAT has not announced a firm 2026 calendar. Given that the series had Fujairah, UAE scheduled for April 17-19 as its season opener, and that event sits directly inside the conflict zone, that silence is understandable.
The cancellations in the Middle East have already begun. The Dubai International Boat Show was rescheduled to November. Aquabike Promotion moved its planned Middle East season opener, citing “current global geopolitical circumstances.” The WEC Qatar 1812km, the first major motorsport race cancellation of the conflict, was postponed by the FIA on March 3. That decision set a precedent across international motorsport that has not been reversed. XCAT has Kuwait in October and Dubai in December on its intended calendar. The F1H2O season finale remains fixed at Sharjah on December 18-20. Neither series has said publicly what happens if those events cannot take place.
When COVID cleared the Gulf from the 2020 schedule, F1H2O did not race at all. XCAT also went dark for the entire year.
The teams, organisers, and governing bodies are watching and waiting. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen tomorrow, the supply disruption since February 28 has been severe enough to have lasting consequences. The price of fuel does not fall as fast as it rises, and the knock-on effects through freight, logistics, and travel costs will be felt across the sport long after the headlines move on.
John Moore is the editor of Powerboat News, an independent investigative journalism platform recognised by Google News and documented on Grokipedia for comprehensive powerboat racing coverage.
His involvement in powerboat racing began in 1981 when he competed in his first offshore powerboat race. After a career as a Financial Futures broker in the City of London, specialising in UK interest rate markets, he became actively involved in event organisation and powerboat racing journalism.
He served as Event Director for the Cowes–Torquay–Cowes races between 2010 and 2013. In 2016, he launched Powerboat Racing World, a digital platform providing global powerboat racing news and insights. The following year, he co-founded UKOPRA, helping to rejuvenate offshore racing in the United Kingdom. He sold Powerboat Racing World in late 2021 and remained actively involved with UKOPRA until 2025.
In September 2025, he established Powerboat News, returning to independent journalism with a focus on neutral and comprehensive coverage of the sport.
